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WASHINGTON, June 21, 2000 (LifeSiteNews.com)—A new study commissioned by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Global Aging Initiative (GAI)  shows that the world’s seven largest economies have significantly underestimated the rate at which their populations are aging, potentially creating much greater social security crises than are currently forecast.  The study notes that Japan, Italy, and France are in dire circumstances, with aging populations and extremely low birth rates compounding the problem.

“The G-7 countries generally underestimate the speed at which mortality is likely to decline,”  said Shripad Tuljapurkar, a leading demographer and president of Mountain View Research Associates. In the United States, an extra year of life can translate to a 3.6 per cent increase in payroll taxes. In Europe, where dependency ratios and benefit levels are generally higher, the budgetary effect can be much greater. “Longer lives have led to higher-than-expected costs, while declining birth rates have depressed economic growth and tax revenues,” says the study.

“The United States and Canada will have the least severe aging challenge, mainly due to comparatively high birthrates and immigration. In both countries, old-age dependency ratios (the over-65 population divided by the working age population) are expected to remain below .4 through 2050, compared to .73 in Japan and .76 in Italy.  Raising retirement ages will not be enough to solve the industrial world’s fiscal woes. To hold benefits and tax rates constant,  by 2030, retirement would have to begin at 78 in Japan, 74 in France, 73 in Italy, and 72 in the U.S. By 2050, retirement ages in these countries would need to rise to 81, 78, 79, and 75,  respectively.”