VENTURA, California, June 14, 2004 (LifeSiteNews.com) – A person’s faith is the most likely predictor of how they will vote this November, according to a recent Barna group survey.
The Barna group conducted a national survey of 1,618 adults in the last week of May, 1,260 of whom were registered voters. When the 1,618 were asked “whom they prefer,” Kerry bests Bush by a small margin of 43 to 40 percent. But when only registered voters were polled, there was a tie: 43 percent support for Bush and 43 percent for Kerry. When differing populations were examined, 86 percent of evangelical Christians, who comprise seven percent of the U.S. population, said they would vote for Bush. Born-again, non-evangelical Christians, comprising 31 percent of the U.S. population, support the President by a margin of 53 to 35 percent. Of “Notional” Christians—those neither evangelical nor born again—who make up 39 percent of the U.S. population, 42 percent expressed support for John Kerry, 27 percent for the Republicans. Agnostics and atheists were twice as likely to vote for Kerry, by a margin of 48 to 24 percent, while non-Christians of other faiths support Kerry 55 to 22 percent. According to researcher George Barna, it is difficult to predict the outcome of this November’s election, “. . . these next five months will be critical in seeing where the undecided voters land,” Barna said. “They comprise one-fifth of the likely voters.” Of the undecided voters, Barna described the effect that faith orientation would have on the vote: “[The election] outcome will be intimately related to people’s faith leanings and how they interpret the moral standards and personal character of the leading candidates. For instance, one-quarter of the non-evangelical born again segment, and one-third of the Notional Christian segment have yet to decide whom they will support. Their choices will tip the scale one way or the other on November 9.” Barna described how Notional Christian’s support for President Bush has waned since the 2000 election, whereas “Mr. Kerry is receiving less support from non-evangelical born again Christians than did either Bill Clinton in 1996 or Al Gore in 2000.” Given that the agnostics and non-Christians—both overwhelming Kerry supporters—are a slim minority of the population, “Mr. Bush’s chances of re-election hinge squarely on the choices of the Christian body,” he said. Barna had one warning for voters: “Getting his supporters to actually turnout on Election Day will be critical for Mr. Bush.” He described how Bush’s greatest supporters—evangelical Christians—are also less likely to vote when “81% say the President will win in November.” Twice as many non-evangelical born-agains are convinced that Bush will be re-elected as not. Barna says “. . . there is the danger of [the President’s] most ardent supporters – the evangelicals – failing to show up because they are so firmly convinced he will win.” Read the full report of the poll at: https://www.barna.org/FlexPage.aspx?Page=BarnaUpdateNarrow&BarnaUpdateID=165