By Staff

OTTAWA, December 15, 2005 ( – Canada’s population is ageing fast and senior citizens will outnumber children in about a decade, according to new population projections released today by the official government statistical organization.Â

In all growth scenarios considered for the study, Statistics Canada reports that seniors aged 65 and over would become more numerous than children aged less than 15 around the year 2015. A situation the report describes as “an unprecedented situation in Canada.”

By 2031, the number of people aged 65 and over would range between 8.9 million and 9.4 million, depending on the scenario selected, while the number of children would range between 4.8 million and 6.6 million.

While Canada’s population is currently younger than the populations of most of the G8 countries, it is expected to age more rapidly in the coming years.ÂThis has been a direct result of the pronounced baby boom following the Second World War and the rapid decline in fertility that followed with the legalization and promotion of contraceptionÂand abortionÂand on-going, relentless implementation of Canadian government anti-family policies.


The findings of the research present a nightmare scenario for Canadian old age security and health care as the workforce shrinks and the percentage of retired Canadians balloons.

The projections show that population ageing, which has already begun, would accelerate in 2011 when the first baby-boom cohort (born in 1946) reaches the age of 65. This rapid ageing is projected to last until 2031, when seniors would account for between 23% and 25% of the total population.

In every projection scenario, the median age of Canada’s population would continue to rise. The current median age of the population is 39, that is, half the population is older and half younger. By 2031, it would reach between 43 and 46. In 2056, it would be between 45 and 50.

In addition, the proportion of older seniors, people aged 80 years and over, would increase sharply in every projection scenario. By 2056, an estimated 1 out of 10 Canadians would be 80 years or over, compared with around 1 in 30 in 2005.


The report stresses “immigration alone cannot reverse this ageing trend.”

However, the prospect of encouraging Canadians to have more children and assisting families is typically nowhere mentioned in the report.

In every projection scenario, the proportion of the working-age population, that is the population aged 15 to 64, would decline steadily in the 2010s and 2020s. Currently, the working-age population represents 70% of the total population. By the beginning of the 2030s, it would decline to 62%, then level off at about 60%.


Also, in every projection scenario, the demographic dependency ratio would increase rapidly until 2031. This ratio indicates the number of children aged less than 15 years and the number of seniors 65 and over for every 100 working-age people.

In 2005, for every 100 working-age people, there were 44 children and seniors. According to the low-growth scenario, it would start decreasing in 2017.


In all the scenarios considered, natural increase would eventually become negative, that is, there would be more deaths than births. This would occur in 2020 under the low-growth scenario, in 2030 under the medium-growth scenario, and in 2046 under the high-growth scenario. As a result, international net migration would become the country’s only source of population growth.

Immigration levels contribute heavily to the projected population growth at the national level, as the fertility rate is assumed to remain below the replacement level in all scenarios, a situation observed since the 1970s.


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