(LifeSiteNews) – Environmental activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. believes he would take more votes from Republican former President Donald Trump than incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden in a potential independent run for the presidency amid speculation that he may be launching such a bid in the near future.
Kennedy — nephew of the late President John F. Kennedy and son of the late Attorney General Robert Kennedy, a longtime environmental activist and founder of the group Children’s Health Defense — is currently running a long-shot bid for the Democrat presidential nomination, which has garnered praise along non-traditional lines and even among some conservatives for his harsh criticism of COVID-19 lockdowns, mandates, and vaccines.
Last week, Mediaite reported that Kennedy was planning to announce an independent run for the general election on October 9, fueled by frustration that the Democrat National Committee was “changing the rules to exclude his candidacy,” according to an unnamed campaign insider. While not confirming the speculation, Kennedy announced that he does have a “major announcement” planned for that date.
The story has prompted speculation as to how Kennedy might influence a potential rematch between Trump and Biden. Third-party presidential candidates historically are not viable contenders to win elections themselves but have been accused of pulling enough votes from the major-party candidates with whom they are most aligned to cost them victory, such as Ross Perot in 1992 and Ralph Nader in 2000.
Given Kennedy’s affiliation with the most famous Democrat family of the 20th century and his far-left views on issues such as abortion, environmentalism, and affirmative action, conventional wisdom would suggest at first glance that his candidacy would divide Democrats, helping Trump return to the White House. However, more than a few pro- and anti-Trump observers alike suggest the opposite, given Trump’s persistent refusal to disavow his administration’s controversial COVID-19 vaccines or accept blame for backing lockdowns – the issues that created RFK’s fandom on the political Right.
Kennedy himself agrees with the latter assessment, telling podcaster Theo Von recently, “I take more votes from President Trump than I do President Biden.”
Bobby Kennedy is expected to run as an independent. Check out what he told Theo Von last week.
"I take more votes from President Trump than I do President Biden." pic.twitter.com/oo9Vm0ckWE
— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) October 1, 2023
So far, actual data on the question is scarce. An Echelon Insights poll released at the end of September found that in a three-way race, Trump would get 40% of the popular vote, Biden 36%, and Kennedy 14%, with a remaining 10% unsure. On Monday, Zogby Strategies released a poll commissioned by the Kennedy campaign claiming he would enter the race at 19%, with Biden and Trump tied at 38%.
Previous polling has found significant discontent with the prospect of a Trump-Biden rematch, and that up to 44% of registered voters would be open to voting third party, with Democrats more open to it than Republicans.
The Kennedy factor hangs over a race in which both parties are contending with significant concerns about their own candidates, from Trump’s multiple legal battles severely impacting his ability to campaign in a general election to Biden’s advanced age and pattern of public confusion raising fears of a public episode that convinces voters he is incapable of the job.
Biden critics on the Left want the president to step aside for reelection in favor of a younger Democrat such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom; Trump critics on the Right advocate nominating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a fierce critic of the medical establishment, instead of Trump.
Trump maintains a commanding lead over DeSantis for the nomination, but while he leads Biden in some national polls, he is projected to lose the Electoral College by election forecaster RacetotheWH. The next election is more than a year away, and numerous future variables – Biden’s health, Trump’s trials, a Kennedy run, new national crises – could impact all these outcomes in either direction.