News

Thursday May 27, 2010


Statistics Canada Predicts Seniors Will Soon Outnumber Children

By Thaddeus M. Baklinski

OTTAWA, May 27, 2010 (LifeSiteNews.com) – The Demography Division of Statistics Canada has predicted that the number of seniors will surpass the number of children aged 14 or under for the first time ever sometime between 2015 and 2021.

The population projections for 2009 to 2036, released by the federal agency yesterday, say that Canada’s population will age rapidly until 2031, by which time the entire baby boom generation would have turned 65. Thereafter it would continue aging, but at a less rapid pace.

“Projections show that seniors would account for between 23% and 25% of the total population by 2036, nearly double the 13.9% in 2009. Higher immigration levels would do little to change the forthcoming aging of the Canadian population,” the report states.

While the number of children aged 14 or under for every 100 people in the working-age population will increase marginally from 24 in 2009 to 26 by 2036, seniors aged 65 and over would rise from 20 to 39 for every 100 people of working age.

At the same time, the proportion of the working-age population aged 15 to 64 would decline steadily from about 70% to about 60%.

The report takes into account three growth rate scenarios, high-, medium- and low-growth, based on assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and migration, factoring in natural increase (births minus deaths), and net international migration (immigrants minus emigrants).

“Regardless of the scenario, immigration levels would represent a larger share of the projected population growth at the national level. Because large numbers of new immigrants consist of younger individuals in the child-bearing age, sustained levels of immigration would also have a positive impact on the number of births,” the report explains.

The fact that immigration is seen to play a major role in Canada’s growth highlights the problem of declining birth rate among Canadians of child-bearing age.

Canada’s consistent 1.5 birth rate, far below the 2.1 replacement rate, along with the accompanying aging of the population, has lead to a number of studies and government reports on how to deal with the problem.

Last year, the C.D. Howe Institute, a Canadian public policy think tank, issued a study which argued that immigration alone will not offset the effects of Canada’s increasing ratio of dependant elderly to workers, but that higher fertility was needed to combat the increasingly-aged Canadian demographic trend.

According to the study, “current fertility and immigration rates, moderately rising life expectancy, and historical productivity increases can be expected to depress workforce growth, boost the ratio of Canadians 65 and over to those of working age (the old-age dependency ratio) and depress growth in incomes per person.”

However, “despite some popular commentary,” the study states, “offsetting or even noticeably mitigating these trends through increased immigration alone would require unrealistic increases in total immigration levels.”

Earlier this year, parliament released one of the first official reports dealing with the consequences of Canada’s long-term below, replacement birth rate, saying the financial result of the declining birth rate would be fiscally devastating.

“The Government’s current fiscal structure is not sustainable over the long term,” said the report. In order to compensate for the low birth rate the report said there must be very substantial increases in taxation and major cuts to government services, amounting to $14 to 28 billion.

The documentary film “Demographic Winter,” and its sequel “Demographic Bomb,” have explored the effects of the worldwide decline in birthrates, and painted a disturbing picture of the devastating social, political and economic effects of the continuing global population crisis.

“The ongoing global decline in human birthrates is the single most powerful force affecting the fate of nations and the future of society in the 21st century,” said demographer Philip Longman in the film.

Producer of both films, Barry McLerran, said that the documentaries show “what happens when countries comprising 80 percent of the world’s economy have plummeting numbers of workers, consumers and innovators – leading to falling consumer spending, and too few workers to support the elderly.”

“We are headed toward a demographic winter which threatens to have catastrophic social and economic consequences,” say the filmmakers. “The effects will be severe and long lasting and are already becoming manifest in much of Europe.”


See related LSN articles:

Parliament Report Sounds Alarm: Low Birth Rate + Aging = Financial Crisis

https://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2010/feb/10021809.html

Higher Fertility Needed in Canada Says Think Tank

https://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/jul/09070703.html

Canada’s Birth Rate Declines, Again: StatsCan

https://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2006/aug/06080303.html

StatsCan Reveals Canada’s Birth Rate Continues to Drop: at All-Time Low

https://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2004/apr/04041905.html

Demographic Winter: The Greatest Crisis Humanity Will Face This Century

https://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009_docs/DonFederRoseDinnerspeech.pdf