UN Once More Predicts Steep Declines in Population Growth Rates

NEW YORK, November 11, 2004 (C-Fam.org) -The UN Population Division has just released its occasional crystal ball predictions about global population growth. This report attempts to project fertility rates and global population well into the future. The report itself admits their work is mostly “guesses.” After all, in this report they look three hundred years into the future. What is unique about this report is that it is the first UN report to look so far into the future and it predicts that over the next three hundred years world population will experience substantial ageing and eventual decline.  Global population is expected to decline because many countries will sustain a long-term growth rate below the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, which a country needs to maintain its population. The report expects that Europe, where “fertility falls to its lowest point” in the world, will shrink from its current 728 million to 538 million by 2100. By 2045-2050, “139 countries will have total fertility under 2.0.”  One of the most alarming predictions in the report is that the world population will experience a massive ageing. Decreased fertility will shrivel the proportion of children in the world population from 30% to 16% by 2100. This, together with increased life expectancy, will cause the median age to rise from 26 years in 2000 to 50 years in 2300, and the proportion of those aged 65 or over will rocket from 7% in 2000 to 32% in 2300.  The report also projects a great increase in population of the very old (those aged 80 or older). Even by 2100 their population should rise to eleven times the number in 2000, and by 2300 they will be 17% of the population, contrasted with the current 1%.  The ageing of the population will mean that on average, there will be more than one ‘dependent’ per person of working age, and the report suggests that countries will need to adapt their institutions and economies. One possible change is that the retirement age may need to be increased far beyond where most nations place it.