Threats of fraud, violence as presidential election looms
October 29, 2020 (American Thinker) — Four days out from the Republic's most consequential presidential election since 1860, deep concern that major voter fraud may be occurring arises by comparing the two most reliable polls with the numbers that daily, hourly are being bruited about by the egregious American media.
As of Wednesday, October 28, 2020, the Real Clear Politics average, being reported daily by American Pravda, shows a 7.5% Biden lead in the national popular vote. But that widely reported average is vastly remote from today's numbers published by the two most accurate predictors of the 2016 outcome: IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen, both of whose final snapshots in 2016 came closest to the actual result, IBD actually predicting a Trump victory.
First, the less favorable for the president of these two polls:
October 28, 2020: IBD/TIPP has a 4.6% lead for Biden (50.1 to 45.5), a spread significantly 2.9% smaller than that claimed by the RCP average. Trump's 2016 electoral vote victory came against the gale force winds of a 2+% popular vote loss. There is no historical precedent for overcoming a popular vote loss in the 4-point range — no one ever has — but five days remain, and the margin of error could easily bring today's IBD/TIPP's numbers within the popular vote percentages for 2016, possibly even more favorable to the president.
But today's huge outlier from the RCP average is Rasmussen, also very close to correct in 2016. Rasmussen has likely voter preference at 48-47, favoring the president, an enormous 8.5% better showing for President Trump than the RCP average.
Another Rasmussen number backs up its latest voter preference survey. Rasmussen's presidential approval poll has the president in positive territory, 52-47%, which normally would also be predictive of his victory.
If the latest numbers by 2016's two most accurate polling companies are averaged, the president is doing better now in the national popular vote than his 2016 result. Yet the RCP average, overwhelmingly based on unproven pollsters, has him down 7.5%, a significant 5.5% worse than his 2016 result.
What's going on?
I didn't put this together to cheer up AT's already sophisticated readers, who know that the RCP average includes a passel of polls with no record of recent accuracy or trustworthiness — little more than a collection of unassessed data with no recent history of accuracy in presidential elections — and who already understand the enormous difficulty of getting an accurate read on the president's support, even by fair pollsters, given the "shy" Trump voter phenomenon and many other factors.
Rather, I put this together to emphasize what seems to be going on: in publicizing the RCP average, and in the media drumbeat, far worse than 2016, that it's in the bag for Biden, the public is being prepared for a victory that very well may not be real, but that may appear from the count to have happened. This is not conspiracy stuff or paranoia.
America has never had a presidential election more perfectly designed to facilitate wide-scale voter fraud. It has never before had a presidential election where anything approaching the millions of unrequested absentee ballots has been mailed, and hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of those ballots have been, and still are, lying around uncollected (or, worse still, possibly already collected). Would today's Democrats — filled with Bolshevist certainty that they have the truth and that their opponents are evil and about to destroy Mother Earth — throw all concern for constitutional legitimacy aside and collect, and feloniously vote, enough ballots to convert a Trump victory into a loss? Might they have done that already?
I'll let the reader answer those questions.
The huge gap between today's numbers by 2016's two best pollsters, and the junk polls being touted hourly by the media, suggest that the stage may well be under construction for presentation and justification of a Biden victory that never happened.
The sage Emmett Tyrrell predicted Trump's victory this Tuesday, just as he predicted it four years ago. But he ended his upbeat article with the following dark observation:
The only thing that could overthrow my calculations is voter fraud. There are an awful lot of blank ballots floating around out there.
It's been a hard year. It may well be about to get a lot harder for American conservatives and patriots. We may be on the brink of having to endure another two-month election night, as in 2000 — but this time endure it in a country whose Democrats can and will deploy their large and well organized violent street thug wing to aid an army of lawyers. It's a classic revolutionary coalition straight out of the history books: intellectuals backed by the mob. If it unfolds thus, Trump's prevailing will require a much steelier will, by him and his supporters, than in 2000.
Trump of course will leave if honestly beaten. Claims to the contrary make a pair with "Russia Collusion." But his tens of millions of voters, half the country at least and more than half of its productive citizens, are not going to surrender the values, constitutional freedoms, and rule of law that they love to a fraudulent election. Fortunately, they have a president who feels the same way.
Published with permission from the American Thinker.